The Falcons’ 29-25 loss in New Orleans essentially eliminated them from a divisional title, as they fell to two games behind Carolina with just three to play. Now Atlanta sits smack-dab in the middle of a cluttered race for the two wild card spots. Here’s a look at Atlanta’s main competitors for the final two spots.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-4, currently hold first wild card spot)
Remaining games: at Atlanta, vs. San Diego, vs. Oakland
vs. Falcons: Won 24-9 (Week 2)
Conference record (second tiebreaker): 8-3
How They Got Here
The Falcons would have been better off if the Bucs’ run ‘D’ had showed up Monday night. Now they sit one game behind a team that they will struggle to catch because of their superior conference record.
The Bucs were the favorites to win the division until last night. They’ve benefited greatly from another vintage Monte Kiffin defense. Meanwhile, the offense has plodded along behind the steady hand of Jeff Garcia, and the difficult yet brilliant Jon Gruden calling the plays.
The Outlook
Tampa is lucky enough to face two teams from that division, getting the underachieving Chargers and fledgling Oakland Raiders over the final two weeks of the year. Thanks to that easy close to their schedule, there is a real chance that both wild card teams could emerge from the NFC South if Atlanta holds serve on Sunday.
DALLAS COWBOYS (8-5, currently hold second wild card spot)
Remaining games: vs. New York Giants, vs. Baltimore, at Philadelphia
vs. Falcons: n/a
Conference record: 6-4
How They Got Here
The Cowboys were among the favorites to win the NFC this preseason. With playmakers littering the lineup on both sides of the ball, it was easy to believe the hype. But they simply haven’t lived up to their billing. The defense is better than recent years, especially in the secondary. But the offense has suffered from all kinds of injuries, as Tony Romo, Jason Witten and Marion Barber have all missed time. The result has been a streaky unit that will light it up one week, then fizzle the next.
The Outlook
Despite currently holding the final NFC Wild Card position, not many of the teams in the mix have it tougher than Dallas. The devastating loss to the Steelers on Sunday made things even more difficult. With a banged up Marion Barber, and perhaps the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, Dallas has a tough row to hoe. It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys won’t lose at least one of their final three, which would give Atlanta a chance to control its own destiny if it wins out.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (7-5-1, out of playoffs)
Remaining games: vs. Cleveland (Monday), at Washington, vs. Dallas
vs. Falcons: Won 27-14 (Week 8)
Conference record: 6-4
How They Got Here
Philadelphia looked dead in the water two weeks ago. A 36-7 blowout loss in Baltimore on Nov. 23 dropped them to 5-5-1 on the season. But the Eagles resurrected their season by drilling NFC West champs Arizona and NFC favorites New York over the last two weeks.
The results have been directly tied to the performance of Donovan McNabb under center. He looked like his old self the last couple of weeks, and it showed in the victories over two quality opponents. But he also looked back to full speed after throwing for close to 650 yards through the first two weeks of the season before faltering thereafter.
The Outlook
The 13-13 tie against the Bengals in Week 11 means that the Eagles needn’t worry about any tiebreakers, so Atlanta’s disadvantage in head-to-head probably won’t make a difference.
Now they get the Browns, a team in disarray, on Monday Night Football this week before traveling to face a Washington team that has lost four of its last five games. If Philly can keep playing like it is now, three wins to close out the season is a definite possibility.
CHICAGO BEARS (7-6, out of playoffs)
Remaining games: vs. New Orleans (Thursday), vs. Green Bay, at Houston
vs. Falcons: Lost 22-20 (Week 6)
Conference record: 5-5
How They Got Here
The Bears defense isn’t what it once was; just ask the secondary that has been getting torched all season. Meanwhile, the offense sputtered after showing progress early in the year behind Kyle Orton. But he suffered a leg injury in Week 9 and hasn’t been the same since returning. Still Chicago has remained competitive in a relatively weak NFC North, and is just one game behind leaders Minnesota.
The Outlook
The Bears and Saints game is an elimination game. Lose that one, and the season is over with respect to the playoffs. Chicago will probably have to not just tie, but surpass Atlanta altogether in order to get into the playoffs because the tiebreakers favor the Falcons. While Chicago’s last two opponents have little to play for, winning this week will be tough. With the secondary struggling, Drew Brees and the top passing offense in the NFL will be licking their chops.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-6, out of playoffs)
Remaining games: at Chicago (Thursday), at Detroit, vs. Carolina
Vs. Falcons: Lost 34-20 (Week 10), Won 29-25 (Week 14)
Conference record: 4-5
How They Got Here
Inconsistency has killed the Saints all season. Despite having one of the league’s top offense, a complete inability to run the ball and a mediocre defense have done them in. Losing Reggie Bush for a while to a knee injury didn’t help either.
The Saints have shown several times this season that they have the talent to do big things. But whether the impressive win over the Falcons last week will get things turned around remains to be seen.
The Outlook
The Saints face the exact same uphill battle as the Bears. They must win not just on Thursday, but also for the remainder of the regular season, and then hope the chips fall their way. The Saints do have one thing going their way: the Lions are on the schedule next week. The Week 17 game against Carolina might not be as difficult as anticipated, as the Panthers may have already wrapped up the division and will be looking to play their backups.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (7-6, out of playoffs)
Remaining games: at Cincinnati, vs. Philadelphia, at San Francisco
vs. Falcons: n/a
Conference record: 6-4
How They Got Here
The Redskins looked like one of the NFL’s teams on the rise after a 6-2 start. Then the bottom fell out. Jason Campbell and first-year head coach Jim Zorn looked like a match made in heaven as the young quarterback made significant strides earlier in the year. But that seems like a distant memory for a team that has scored just 17 points combined in losses over the past two weeks.
The Outlook
A trip to Cincinnati is often the best cure when looking to break a losing streak. But the ‘Skins have looked bad for a long time, and they can’t overlook anyone anymore. But if they can beat the Bengals, it will set up a critical matchup at home against Philly, where winning could catapult them right back into a wild card position.
Bagriansky can be reached at jbagriansky@scoreatl.com.
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