Everything changes in the fantasy playoffs. Instead of just playing your normal lineup, you need to do some breakdowns and look to maximize your roster. In December, you especially need to focus on the weather. A cold weather, rain or snow forecast for Sunday means that you need to give a lower grade to quarterbacks playing in the Northeast and a higher grade to running backs playing in these games. I also think that this time of year when real playoff berths are on the line means low-scoring games. Playing the matchups is very important when it is lose-and-go-home. Okay, here are some plays that will maximize your roster during Week 15 of the NFL season.
START ‘EM
Philip Rivers, Chargers. The statistics say that Rivers is a top five fantasy football quarterback, but his play has been erratic all season. Playing him every week is like riding a roller coaster. There is no evidence for this, but I feel like the Chargers are going to make a run in these last three games and have a chance to make the playoffs. Look for Rivers to have over 250 yards and maybe a touchdown this weekend.
Chad Pennington, Dolphins. Pennington is one of a handful of NFL players that should be mentioned as an MVP candidate. What if the Dolphins had Chad Henne or John Beck playing quarterback? They would be in deep trouble. The Niners have been playing better since the promotion of Mike Singletary to head coach, but the cross-country trip to Miami and the South Beach night life should give the Dolphins an edge. Look for Pennington to continue his MVP caliber play with a 300-yard passing game this week.
Ryan Grant, Packers. Have you ever heard the term fantasy kryptonite? That term means a specific player that you keep playing or keep drafting that never plays well enough for you to win. The kind of guy that in real life plays just well enough to get the coach fired. I stayed with Grant all year and finished with a mind-numbing .500 record. You know that means that Grant is going to play great these last three weeks. Combine that knowledge with his matchup against the weak Jaguars run defense and you have a recipe for a big day for Grant.
Lendale White, Titans. Coach Jeff Fisher has pushed all the right buttons this year for the Titans. He has used rookie running back Chris Johnson with Lendale White to form a formidable one-two punch. Maybe White was right a couple of weeks ago when he complained about not getting the ball enough against the Jets. He had a touchdown last week and should score again this week. Even at home, the Texans always give up a lot of yards and points.
Marvin Harrison, Colts. The naysayers have been killing Marvin Harrison all year about how he has lost a step. He is coming off a severe knee injury and those injuries usually take two years to come back to full strength. Harrison is kind of like the Colts in that he has quietly started to catch touchdowns, as the Colts have quietly won six straight games. Everyone on the Colts’ offense should put up big numbers against the Lions. The big fear is that if the game is a blowout, Coach Dungy will pull the starters.
SIT ‘EM
Joe Flacco, Ravens. Rookie quarterbacks have been money this year. Two weeks ago, I was burned by Flacco and Matt Ryan. The problem for Flacco is that he has a terrible matchup this week against the Steelers. The Steelers’ defense has not allowed any team to gain 300 total yards in a game this season. Flacco might play well enough to lead the Ravens to a win, but he will not pass for over 200 yards.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. This Steelers versus Ravens game is guaranteed to be a low-scoring affair. Check the weather for this game in Baltimore before setting your lineup. In cold, snowy weather, rank your running backs higher than your quarterbacks and wide receivers. Additionally, the Ravens’ secondary has been all over the field the past two games. Baltimore’s defense only gives up an average of seven fantasy points to quarterbacks each week. Safety Ed Reed has about a 50 percent chance of taking an interception or fumble recovery back for a touchdown.
Steve Slaton, Texans. For a very low fantasy draft pick, Slaton has emerged as one of the ten best rookies in 2008. Barring a late-season injury, he probably will be a first- or second-round fantasy pick in 2009. But, I still would not play him this week against the Titans. The Titans are going to shut down the Texans’ running attack. The only way that the Texans can win this game is if QB Matt Schaub has a monster game and throws over 40 times.
Marshawn Lynch, Bills. Lynch has not been able to get into the end zone lately. He is getting some yards for the Bills in the rushing and passing attack, but he has not scored many touchdowns. The Jets’ defense is still underrated. If you take out road trips to the West Coast, the Jets are having a great year. Another problem for Lynch is the unsettled quarterback position for the Bills. J.P. Losman is terrible and Trent Edwards has lost his confidence. Look for the Bills to lose another game at New York this week.
Terrell Owens, Cowboys. After watching Owens bail out on Tony Romo’s first interception against the Steelers, I understand why Romo does not count on Owens in crunch time. Romo does not know for sure that T.O. is going to run the correct pass route. Owens actually stopped running his pattern against Pittsburgh. Forget about the Cowboys for 2008—a loss to the Giants on Sunday night ends their season.
Last Week. I finished up the week with seven picks correct and three misses. My best predictions were to start wide receivers Wes Welker and Steve Breaston. Welker had an incredible game for the Patriots. He is threatening to lead the NFL in receptions this season. My worst pick was to sit Matt Schaub of the Texans. Despite coming off over a month layoff due to injury, Schaub was scintillating for the Texans. He led them to an important road victory over the Packers.
Fantasy Questions? Need lineup advice? Leave a comment below or e-mail your questions to me at jck.bender@gmail.com. Good luck this week!
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