FANTASY FOOTBALL: Our advice on how to approach your draft

It is one of man’s most addicting and obsessive hobbies. With the birth and growth of the Internet, it has gone from something most men thought impossible to a huge business with an estimated 20 million plus users. Wives and girlfriends cringe at the thought of it. It’s accessible through many different websites. I’m of course talking Fantasy Football, people! With the 2010 NFL season just a couple of weeks away, I’m here to help you become fully equipped to dominate your fantasy drafts and have bragging rights the rest of the year to your college buddies and co-workers. If you’re like me, you need fantasy football like the Pillsbury Dough Boy needs to be tickled. My passion for the “sport” has grown as I’ve participated in leagues and gained valuable knowledge. With this experience, I’ve discovered the keys to opening the pearly white gates of a fantasy football title. Follow these guidelines, and I can pretty much guarantee you’re taking home a championship and that large cash prize your wife doesn’t know about…

ATTEND THE DRAFT…

It is something so basic, yet year after year, costs 18% of all fantasy football seasons to crumble. Still wondering how I came up with that figure? Don’t worry about it. For most fantasy football junkies, the draft is like Christmas morning. But yet, I’ve never had a year when every owner’s been at our draft. We’ve been doing the league for years, all love fantasy football, and yet still there are excuses. Solution? There are no excuses! Unless your wife is going into labor or your beloved grandma is on her deathbed, fantasy football takes precedence; it’s written in the man laws. If you have to be away from draft central, phone in your picks or use our wonderful 21st century technology to get the job done. Worst off, don’t pay your buddy Bob to pick your team if you can’t be there, or even worse, make some Lucifery deal with him that if you place in the money, he gets some percentage of it. Also, if you miss an online draft, you might as well not even play this year. Enjoy that sixth round kicker the computer grabs for you. That being said, I would assume that if you’re still reading this article, you’ll plan on being at your draft. So, moving on…

VALUE BASED DRAFTING…

Each pick, draft the best player available relative to the rest of the players available when you pick. This is a simple concept, but one often not truly put into practice. Every year people ask why RBs are the consensus first 7-8 picks in most drafts when at the end of the year, almost always QBs dominate the top 10. This is because of value-based picking. There’s not as big a difference between the 5th and 15th best QB as there is between the 5th and 15th ranked RB. To use value-based drafting, you need to separate the players you’re looking at into tiers. Is there a huge difference in getting Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson? Probably not. But, after the first 4-5 RBs, depending on whom you talk to, there’s a drop off to the next tier of guys. So, do some preparation before the draft and see where you think those drop-offs might be (in many cases they’re not hard to spot and other fantasy websites will often divide positions into tiers for you). Look at where you’re picking and who might be available next time around. Just because seven consecutive RBs have been taken, doesn’t mean you should just go and grab the next best RB available. Draft the best player available to his relative value and worry about going back and filling needs later. You can always make trades if you have too many good WRs or something like that. The most common position where people make mistakes with this is at TE. There’s always that guy who grabs Dallas Clark in the middle of the fourth round and then all of a sudden, everyone has a panic attack and eight of the next nine picks are TEs. They’re like canned food prior to Y2K. You then realize you’ve just taken Zach Miller in the fifth round, and you feel more violated than when you bought your entire family dinner at a Braves game. Value-based drafting is the name of the game in fantasy football. Owners who understand this and practice it are usually the ones taking home the big prize.

SLEEPING BEAUTIES…

One of the most common words heard at any draft that’s actually printable, sleepers has become the word that is the key to having a great fantasy football year. Everyone knew last year that Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson would be awesome and top fantasy WRs. But how many people knew who Miles Austin was before the season started? Every year there are at least 3-4 players who no one thought much of who become elite fantasy options, and there are many more who become very good options that no one was thinking about. The only thing about fantasy sleepers is that in this day and age, almost every website has lists of potential sleeper players, so is it even fair to call them sleepers anymore? The other thing about sleepers is that they’re not a sleeper anymore if you draft them two rounds ahead of where they would have gone. Drafting Devin Aromashodu in the seventh round no longer makes him a sleeper. Drafting him in the eleventh round does. This, again, goes back to value-based drafting. For who I think some sleepers will be, see the last section where I rank players.

BOUNCING BACK…

Along a similar line to sleepers, is to look for bounce back players. It is rare that a truly great player will have consecutive poor seasons. So if he had a bad year last year, chances are he’ll bounce back this year with a solid year. A perfect example of this in 2010 is none other than Atlanta’s Michael Turner. Going into last season, there were many arguments that he should be taken over Adrian Peterson as the top overall pick in the draft. He, then, suffered from injuries and made fantasy owners furious all over the country. Now, Turner, healthy and looking better than ever, is back and is going an average of ninth overall in drafts. This is the same guy who people argued was the best fantasy football player to have just a year ago. Another guy to look out for in that same department is Matt Forte. After a great 2008 campaign, Forte became a top 5 pick last season and disappointed owners. But, it’s a new year and he’s now going in the fourth round. This is the same guy who was a consensus top 5 pick a year ago. So, look for guys who disappointed last year, and enjoy the fury of their previous owner when they return to form this season.

THE OLD BALL AND CHAIN THEORY…

If you have a top five pick, first of all I hope you take a running back. Secondly, in the fourteenth round, draft his backup. This is an old strategy and one used prevalently, but still should be reminded. Say you have the number one pick and take Chris Johnson. Fast forward to Week 7, and all of a sudden he breaks his ankle. You’re out getting big at the gym, while your same buddy Bob is watching the game and immediately goes to the waiver wire to snatch Javon Ringer. You, then, are S.O.L. my friend. Losing a big-time pick is obviously a huge blow to your team, but it’s even worse when someone ends up picking up his back-up and watches him blow up for 25 points his first start. So, Johnson owners take Ringer. Adrian Peterson owners grab Toby Gerhardt. Maurice Jones-Drew owners, learn the name Rashad Jennings, and Ray Rice owners get Willis McGahee. Injuries suck, and are unfortunately a part of the game, but you can at least minimize the damage if you chain your starters to their scout team counterparts.

WAIT ON DEFENSES…

Somebody in your draft is going to take the Jets’ defense in about the seventh round and will immediately get that look that’s permanently stuck to Lane Kiffin’s face. He’ll think he just made a genius move by getting the best defense. He’s an idiot, so don’t be that guy. A great fantasy defense can definitely be the difference between a good year and a championship, but the problem is that defenses are the most unpredictable position. Last season, everyone thought Minnesota would have some awesome fantasy machine defense and they finished 13th among defenses at the end of the year. All those guys who took Minnesota early just wasted a high pick on a defense that could’ve been replaced by a better defense off waivers. Nobody had the Saints’ D on their radar in 2009, but they scored eight defensive touchdowns and ended up as a top-notch defense. Every year, defenses come out of nowhere to be pretty good, and perceived elite defenses end up as nothing special. I guarantee you’ll be able to get a sufficient defense off the waiver wire within the first few weeks, so don’t waste an early pick taking a defense when there are still tons of high upside RBs and WRs available.

DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT A KICKER UNTIL THE LAST ROUND…

This is without doubt the easiest, most obvious, and simplest fantasy law to follow. Yet, plenty of people break it year after year. Like defenses, kickers are very hard to predict, and often plenty of good ones can be found off waivers early in the season. And even if you do end up with great kicker, the difference between a great kicker and an okay kicker is less than 2 points a game. Don’t do it. Keep looking for sleepers at other positions and grab your kicker as time winds down.

PUT IN THE MAN HOURS…

Do research. Read multiple magazines and websites. If you know where you’re picking prior to the draft, look for 4-5 players who you like who might be available when you’re up to bat. Many owners simply go into the drafts blind and like it that way, but it’s a bold strategy. Look at what players were hot and cold towards the end of last season. Dig deep for those sleepers, and if you’re in a keeper league, it’s even more important to have a deep knowledge of who’s who. These are just some guidelines to follow, but to have a great draft, you have to be prepared. There are also many sites out there that allow you to participate in mock drafts, and as they say, practice makes perfect.

MR. IRRELEVANT IS RELEVANT…

If you have the last pick in your draft (meaning you’d have either the first or tenth pick overall depending on how many rounds your draft is), get creative with the very last pick. Don’t take a kicker even if you don’t have one. In our league, we’ve made the last pick one of the most anticipated picks in the draft the last few years, as it always draws plenty of laughs. Last year’s was Michael Vick. It’s hard to top that, and Vick is certainly another good candidate for this year, though Plaxico Burress could give him a run for his money. Scroll way down into the thousand-plus rankings and look for a name that will draw a chuckle out of your buddies. Then, when the draft’s over, drop him and get that kicker. It makes the end of the draft fun and gives people something to look forward to late.

That’s all the advice I have to give to those of you readers who have made it this far. I will now include my top 10 rankings at each position along with 3 sleepers and one guy to avoid to give you some help if you can’t make a decision on draft night. Hope it helps.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees

3. Matt Schaub

4. Tom Brady

5. Peyton Manning

6. Tony Romo

7. Philip Rivers

8. Kevin Kolb

9. Brett Favre

10. Jay Cutler

Sleepers: Ben Roethlisberger (people will steer away because of the suspension, but once back could be a top 10 QB), Vince Young, Chad Henne

Avoid: Matt Leinart

Running Backs

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Ray Rice

4. Maurice Jones-Drew

5. Michael Turner

6. Frank Gore

7. Rashard Mendenhall

8. Shonne Greene

9. Steven Jackson

10. Ryan Grant

Sleepers: Arian Foster, Felix Jones, and Donald Brown

Avoid: Cedric Benson

Wide Receivers

1. Andre Johnson

2. Miles Austin

3. Randy Moss

4. Brandon Marshall

5. Reggie Wayne

6. Roddy White

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Greg Jennings

9. Larry Fitzgerald

10. Steve Smith (either version)

Sleepers: Devin Aromashodu, Mike Wallace, Santonio Homes (top 10 WR when back)

Avoid: Desean Jackson

Tight Ends

1. Antonio Gates

2. Dallas Clark

3. Vernon Davis

4. Jermichael Finley

5. Tony Gonzalez

6. Brent Celek

7. Owen Daniels

8. Jason Witten

9. Zach Miller

10. John Carlson

Sleeper: Brandon Pettigrew

Avoid: Chris Cooley

Did you really expect me to rank defenses or kickers?