The second of three straight home games looms this week for the Atlanta Falcons when they face the 5-4 Denver Broncos, a squad that features a dangerous offense but an extremely vulnerable defense. Sound familiar? It should, as that is virtually the exact same matchup that Atlanta faced last week when it waxed the New Orleans Saints by a 34-20 score. Will the Falcons enjoy a similar result this week? If they follow these keys then they probably will.
RYAN’S TIME … AGAIN
Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has to be loving this. For the third straight week, there is a chance for his offense to once again put up some prolific numbers. The Broncos have been helpless against the run and the pass this year, and that gives Atlanta a chance to run away with this one. If recent weeks are any indication, the Broncos will likely pack the box, daring a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan to make the throws under pressure. That didn’t work for Oakland or New Orleans over the past two weeks, but it is clear that opponents are going to force Ryan to beat them rather than Michael Turner.
Cornerback Champ Bailey could return this week from a hamstring injury. But the Broncos secondary has been sub-par with or without him (their pass defense is 28th in the league). If Bailey makes his return, he will be far from 100 percent, giving Matt Ryan and company a chance to expose the UGA alum. Dre Bly is the other corner, and while he is a nice individual talent, he has struggled this season. Still, Bly and Bailey are both confident corners, so expect plenty of press coverage from them (or Karl Paymah, who should start in Bailey’s place if he can’t go).
If Ryan can make the Broncos pay, then there will likely be no stopping this offense for a third consecutive week. If that happens, we will be talking about a 7-3 record for Atlanta on Monday.
CONTROL THE CLOCK
We saw what a long, dominant drive can do to an opponents’ psyche last week. The Saints clearly lost a little confidence, even on offense, when they saw Mularkey’s unit essentially embarrassing their defense in all aspects of the game. If they can do it again this week, then it could very well have a similar effect on an explosive Broncos offense.
Running the football is one way to hold the ball for a long period of time. And Michael Turner is surely salivating at the idea of facing one of the weakest run defenses in the league. It only helps matters that starting linebackers D.J. Williams and Nate Webster are both missing with injuries. There’s no reason not to believe that Turner won’t eclipse the century mark for the fifth time this season.
The other area that allowed the Falcons to hold possession for long periods of time was their success on third downs. They did that last week, converting on a vast majority of their third downs, especially in the first half. While Turner will often be called upon to move the chains, Ryan will have to step up on third down, just like last week, to keep drives alive.
DISCIPLINE IN THE SECONDARY
Shutting down Drew Brees seemed like a bit too much to ask last week. It wasn’t. The Atlanta secondary held its own and confused Brees, keeping the big plays to a minimum and coming up with three picks to boot.
This week, the Falcons face a similar matchup in Jay Cutler. Cutler possesses one of the strongest arms that the league has to offer, and with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal on the outside there is the potential for a big play at any time.
That means that Chris Houston, Domonique Foxworth, Chevis Jackson and company must follow their assignments. Like last week, Atlanta should employ a variety of zone coverages to confuse Cutler. Whether they can shut down an explosive passing game (which averages 395 yards per game) for the second straight week remains to be seen. But if they could get the job done against Brees, then there’s no reason to believe they can’t do the same on Sunday against Cutler.
The date is Nov. 14, 2008, and the Atlanta Falcons are 6-3 and just one game out of first place in the NFC South. As unbelievable as that may be to many of us, this team has clearly proven itself as a contender in the NFC. The key now is to keep playing well, and winning, which will set the table for a run at the NFC South title.
Bagriansky can be reached at jbagriansky@scoreatl.com.
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