Traditionally one of the most competitive divisions in all of football, the NFC South is defined by a relatively bizarre stat that is both hard to believe but also easy to explain. Not once since its inception in 2002 has the South been won by the same team on back-to-back occasions. Counting this current 2012 campaign, the list of champions has gone Bucs, Panthers, Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Falcons, Saints and Falcons. For those counting, that’s two titles for the Panthers, three for the Bucs, three for the Falcons and three for the Saints.
Parity may be the story of the NFC South from a historical perspective, but this season the name of the game was complete domination. The Falcons, owners of an NFL-best 11-1 record, clinched the division title last Sunday—with a whopping four weeks to spare. While their single loss came at the hands of a despised division rival (New Orleans), the Falcons’ overall body of work—plus a statement revenge win last Thursday, 23-13 over the Saints—more than made up their lone hiccup.
This race was never close. Siphoning the suspense out of the division as rapidly as air from a balloon, Atlanta led Tampa Bay by one game after two weeks, had a three-game lead through four weeks, built it to 3.5 by the end of Week 5, and held a four-game advantage after seven weeks when no other division leader led by more 2.5 games. Now 12 contests into the season, the Falcons are five up on the Bucs, six up on the Saints and eight up on the Panthers. They made a mockery of their division to an even greater extent than New England in the AFC East and Denver in the AFC West.
NOT DONE YET …
With four games remaining, the Falcons have not yet clinched homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, nor have they secured a first-round bye. That they have a mathematical chance to accomplish both feats as early as Week 14 (in other words, this Sunday) suggests it is ultimately inevitable barring an unmitigated disaster. Still, for now there is work to be done.
“The last time we won the division I was too amped,” third-year linebacker Sean Weatherspoon wrote earlier this week on Twitter, referring to 2010, when the Falcons clinched the NFC South (and the No. 1 seed) after their final regular-season game only to flame out immediately in the playoffs by receiving a beatdown at home by Green Bay. “This time, it’s just like… Ok, now let’s accomplish the next goal!”
Four games remain—two against division rivals Carolina and Tampa Bay, one against defending Super Bowl champion New York and another at a Detroit team whose 4-8 record belies its true talent. The Panthers, whom Atlanta visits this Sunday, are out of playoff contention at 3-9 after losing in Week 13 to an emotional Kansas City squad that shares the NFL’s worst record with Jacksonville at 2-10. Still, they won’t be taken lightly. In the Georgia Dome on Sept. 30, Carolina led 28-27 with just over a minute left and had all but pinned the first loss of the season on Atlanta until Cam Newton fumbled away what would have been a game-ending first down. Instead, the Panthers punted and promptly lost on a last-second Matt Bryant field goal.
“We’ve certainly got to play better than we did the first time that we played them,” head coach Mike Smith said in a Tuesday press conference. “Obviously, we’re taking a good hard look at what we did last time and what we need to do this week. They are a team that can create explosive plays in both the run game and the pass game. They have a quarterback (Newton) that we have to account for as a runner.”
Over its final four games, Atlanta may only have to account for one team that will still have postseason aspirations for which to play. The Giants, who travel to face the Falcons on Dec. 16, are 7-5 and suddenly locked into a division battle with Dallas and Washington, who are 6-6. They have no chance of clinching prior to facing Atlanta. Detroit is still on life support but must win out to have any prayer at the playoffs. With a game at Green Bay in between now and Dec. 22, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and company will almost certainly be eliminated by the time the Falcons cruise into the Motor City. Atlanta’s regular-season slate ends with Tampa Bay coming to town on Dec. 30. The Bucs, who suffered a tense 24-23 loss to the Falcons on Nov. 25, are 6-6 and may be playing for a wild card.
MAGIC NUMBERS …
As it stands right now, the other NFC contenders are playing for second place (in the regular season, of course). That’s because not only have the Falcons been taking care of their own business, but they have also been getting help. Chicago and San Francisco, their closest pursuers of late, are struggling. The Bears have dropped three of their last four games and the 49ers have won only two of their last four contests. The Giants have also lost three of four and, although the Packers have won six of their last seven, they are still just 8-4. Atlanta has a 2.5-game lead on the rest of the conference and will clinch the top seed with two more wins regardless of what anyone else does.
“We try not to think that far ahead,” Matt Ryan said in his press conference after beating the Saints. “One of things I’ve learned in my five years is that if you worry about what you’re going to do in January, you’re wasting your time. We still have four games to go and we try to take them one game at a time.”
That is the necessary attitude, especially because Week 14 likely won’t bring further clinching. Explaining the permutations and combinations of what has to happen for Atlanta to wrap up a bye, or better yet the No. 1 seed (also mathematically possible), would confound even Albert Einstein. The bottom line, therefore, is that the Falcons would do well simply to keep doing what they’ve been doing: win.
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