We know that the Falcons are going to the playoffs; what we don’t know is who they will be facing once they get there. As the team enters Week 17, it finds itself looking at either a wild card berth and a flight to one of several cities, or even a home playoff game if the ball rolls the Falcons’ way. Here’s a quick look at who Atlanta could face in the postseason, and what it will take this Sunday to make those matchups reality.
No. 2 SEED
What Must Happen: This one isn’t complicated. The Falcons need to beat the 2-13 Rams on Sunday and hope that the division-leading Panthers lose in New Orleans to the Saints. If those two things occur on Sunday, then we’ll be talking about a first-round bye and a home game in two weeks for Atlanta.
The Matchup: Atlanta would play the lowest seed to come out of the wild card round. The opponent could be a wide range of teams, with only the NFC North champion (either Chicago or Minnesota) being the team that they know they won’t see at The Dome.
No matter who the team may be, no one wants to play in the Georgia Dome come playoff time. Atlanta has a 6-1 record there and has already beaten several potential playoff teams in their building such as Carolina, Chicago and Tampa Bay.
No. 5 SEED – AT ARIZONA
What Must Happen: There are a couple of possible scenarios here. The Falcons currently hold the No. 5 spot, a spot they will hold onto if they win Sunday and Carolina takes care of business in New Orleans.
Atlanta can also snag the fifth seed with a loss. They hold the tiebreaker with every team behind them except for Dallas. That means that a Cowboys loss on Sunday guarantees the Birds at least the No. 5 seed no matter what happens against St. Louis.
The Falcons hold the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Chicago, the other four teams that sit just one game behind them entering the season’s final week.
The Matchup: The 8-7 Cardinals may be divisional champs, but they haven’t exactly given a good account of themselves over the past month. The NFC West features three teams that have simply stunk up the joint over the regular season, and they’ve essentially taken the division by default because of that. It’s been a different story against non-divisional opponents. Arizona is 3-7 outside of the NFC West.
The Cards would still present a huge challenge for Atlanta. Especially at the wide receiver position, where Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald provide what is likely the best 1-2 wideout combo in the NFL. That could be trouble for a Falcons secondary that has struggled at times this year.
The Verdict: Despite the presence of Boldin, Fitzgerald, and MVP candidate Kurt Warner under center, this is hardly a matchup that the Falcons can’t handle thanks to the Cardinals’ poor defense (they give up 27 points per game) and non-existent rushing offense (last in the league). It wouldn’t be completely out of the question for them to be the pregame favorites in Vegas, either.
No. 6 SEED – AT MINNESOTA
What Must Happen: Dallas would win a tiebreaker with the Falcons based on their conference record. So if Atlanta falters against the Rams and the Cowboys win in Philadelphia, the Falcons drop down to sixth in the NFC. That means a trip to face the NFC North champion, which will be either the Vikings or Chicago Bears, who will be tied atop the division if the Bears can win tonight in Green Bay.
The Matchup: Although they didn’t play their best game, we got a little taste of what the Vikings are all about yesterday. They’re a physical team that will run the ball down your throat with Adrian Peterson behind a stout offensive line.
But it’s the defense that Atlanta had the most trouble with on Sunday. If not for all of the turnovers, it’s safe to say that things would have been much tougher on the Atlanta offense. The Falcons had just two drives of over 50 yards, and managed just 222 yards on offense.
The Verdict: Another trip to Minneapolis is the last thing Atlanta wants. Winning in that atmosphere twice will be difficult. Plus, pro bowl defensive tackle Pat Williams could return from injury to anchor the league’s best rush defense (Michael Turner ran for just 70 yards yesterday).
No. 6 SEED – AT CHICAGO
What Must Happen: If the above scenario occurs and Atlanta gets the No. 6 seed, a trip to the Windy City could also be in the cards. Of course this is based on the Bears taking home the NFC North title rather than Minnesota.
The Matchup: The two teams last met on Oct. 12. Matt Ryan torched the Chicago secondary earlier in the year for 301 yards and Jason Elam kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired to give Atlanta its most dramatic win of the season. If not for poor red-zone execution, it would have never come to that, as the Falcons controlled the game.
The Bears defense is a shadow of what it once was. The run ‘D’ has been good, although not dominant as in years past. Meanwhile, the secondary has been dreadful, yielding 233.6 yards per game. That’s good news for Atlanta’s passing offense, which would surely be licking its chops once again heading to Chicago.
The Verdict: It didn’t show on the scoreboard, but Atlanta clearly looked the better team when the two squads faced off in Week 6. The Bears haven’t gotten much better, either. Kyle Orton hasn’t been the same this season since injuring his right ankle in Week 9, and now the vast majority of their offense comes from a rookie running back in Matt Forte.
But playing in the bitter cold in front of one of the NFL’s loudest crowds would be no easy task. The weather and atmosphere are often times the great equalizers in these types of games, so this is a game that could go either way.
Bagriansky can be reached at jbagriansky@scoreatl.com.
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