In recent weeks, Georgia’s hopes for a national title seemed to look increasingly dim. After losing to Alabama, the Bulldogs dropped from No. 3 to 10 in the USA Today coaches poll and debuted at No. 10 in the Harris Interactive poll. Georgia had already dropped from its preseason ranking of No. 1 in the coaches poll to No. 3, without losing a game, before falling to the Crimson Tide. And even with three of the top 10 teams losing two weeks ago, the Bulldogs only moved up one spot in both polls. Just this past week, Oklahoma State jumped Georgia in both polls after the Bulldogs beat Vanderbilt 24-14 and the Cowboys beat Baylor 34-6.
Clearly the program’s pizzazz in the college football world seemed to have not recovered from what many considered underwhelming performances in the first several weeks of the season and may have been fatally injured by the team’s 31-0 halftime deficit against Alabama. However, the release of the first BCS Standings gives Georgia hope. Despite being ranked ninth in both the Harris and coaches polls, the Bulldogs checks in at No. 7 in the BCS Standings. So what does this all mean in terms of the Dawgs getting back into the national championship picture?
THE GOOD NEWS
While the human polls have been lukewarm to Georgia this season, the Bulldogs have gotten much love from the computers and their spot in the first BCS Standings show that. Georgia checks in at No. 7 thanks to its average computer ranking of No. 6. In fact, the team’s highest ranking in the six computers is No. 5, and their lowest is No. 9, as five of the six computers have Georgia ranked higher than where the human polls have them. One reason why the computers may like the Bulldogs is because of the won-loss record of their opponents.
The six Division I-A teams Georgia played over the first seven games of the season have a combined record of 27-15. That mark will likely get better, as the current combined record of their final five opponents is 25-8. Those numbers compare favorably to the BCS’s No. 5 team USC, whose opponents’ combined won-loss record to date is 23-20, and the combined won-loss record of their remaining opponents is 20-20. The Trojans are ranked 10th according to the computers.
The Bulldogs will have to first navigate that tough upcoming schedule, but if they are able to do so, that may also get them some of their national prominence back. Specifically, being able to win at LSU and against a Florida team that is ranked ahead of Georgia in each human poll may put that first-half performance against Alabama in the back of the collective college football world’s mind.
THE BAD NEWS
No matter their current standing with the computers, Georgia does not have as much room for error as some of the other top teams. Undefeated Texas, Alabama and Penn State are Nos. 1, 2 and 3, respectively, and could all conceivably lose a game (provided Penn State’s loss is this Saturday at Ohio State), and be ranked ahead of Georgia in the computers and human polls. Oklahoma State is also undefeated and checks in at No. 6. The Cowboys could lose their game at Texas this week and still have a case for being on the same plane or even ahead of Georgia, with games against No. 8 Texas Tech and Oklahoma remaining. The Cowboys’ average computer ranking currently is No. 3.
Also, it may be unlikely for Georgia to pass one-loss teams Oklahoma and USC, assuming all three squads finish with one defeat. Oklahoma, like Texas and Oklahoma State, plays in a loaded Big 12 conference that will keep its computer ranking fairly high. USC is a favorite of the human polls and stands to move up in those rankings if any of the top three teams lose. Despite the favorable rankings from the computers, the human polls are weighted more in the BCS formula; so any one-loss team competing with USC will have to have a considerable advantage in the computers.
COMMON SENSE
Of course, this is only Week 1 of the BCS Standings. Of course, there are many more games to be played. Of course, upsets are bound to happen. With that being said, it is still interesting to forecast where teams may end up if they take care of their business and win their games. For Georgia, the absolute best scenario for the rest of the season would be for them to win the rest of their games. Even if they do that, win an SEC Championship, and finish with a better record than last year’s team, there still may be several schools that stand ahead of them when it comes to playing for the BCS Title. Should that be the case? Only time will tell. But for now, the computers clearly like the Bulldogs more than the humans do.
Butler can be reached at jbutler@scoreatl.com.
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