2012 MOCK DRAFT: Predictions on the first round and where the Falcons go

The 2012 NFL draft gets underway this Thursday and could be one of the most exciting drafts in recent memory. The first two picks of the draft are seemingly locked up, but everyone will be eager to see how the careers of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III play out. The Falcons will not pick until the second round, but Atlanta fans will be interested to see in which direction the team decides to go.

1. Indianapolis Colts – QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

This pick is a no-brainer as Luck has passed every possible test one can think of, including an impressive showing at the Annual Underwear Olympics aka the NFL Combine. Luck possesses every attribute desired in a franchise QB (Arm strength, accuracy, mobility, intelligence, pocket awareness, etc.) and also has prototypical size at 6’4” 234-pounds. He is as polished a quarterback as any that has come out since John Elway and is as “can’t miss” as they come. The Colts are banking on Luck being that franchise guy as they released first-ballot Hall of Famer Peyton Manning to pave the way for him.

2. Washington Redskins – QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor)

RGIII has experienced a meteoric rise in the past year, winning the Heisman and climbing draft boards to the No. 2 spot. The Redskins gave up a king’s ransom for RGIII, giving up three 1st rounders to get him, so the pressure for him to deliver is as high as Luck’s. Griffin was very impressive at the Combine, running a 4.41 40 and proving he is the elite athlete everyone thought he was, but the biggest victory for RGIII at the Combine was measuring in at 6’2” 3/8, 223-pounds, shutting down the idea that he was too small for NFL. RGIII was impressive at his pro day and showed off his arm strength and accuracy, something that was also on display all 2011 at Baylor.

3. Minnesota Vikings – OL Matt Kalil (USC)

Kalil can come in and immediately bolster the left side of an offensive line. The Vikings need to protect the 12th overall pick from last year Christian Ponder, and Kalil can provide them stability at the ever-important left tackle position for the next decade. The Vikings have other needs as well, and will continue to explore trade options in hopes that they can move down to get another tackle and then a playmaker at wide receiver later on.

4. Cleveland Browns – RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)

The Browns have a need at almost every position offensively, but with two picks in the first round they hope to be able to improve at the skill positions and this starts with taking Richardson. Richardson has garnished the most praise coming out of college since Adrian Peterson, taken 7th overall by the Vikings in 2007. Running backs rarely are taken early in the first round because they tend to have short careers, and they can be found in abundance in later rounds. While they want to replace Peyton Hillis, now a Chief, they have so many needs I feel the Browns would be better off looking to take Justin Blackmon at this spot, and try to get one of the 3 “second-tier” running backs (Doug Martin, David Wilson, and Lamar Miller) in the 2nd round. With 3 of the first 36 picks the Browns have got to land some playmakers right now.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)

The Bucs have been one of the most active teams in free agency this offseason because of their tremendous amount of cap room signing Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks and others. While they put some quality players around Josh Freeman offensively, the defense still needs help and Claiborne would give them a very good corner to pair with Eric Wright. With the uncertainty of whether Aqib Talib can stay out of trouble off the field, the Bucs would do themselves well to pick up the best corner in this draft to add some stability to their secondary. Claiborne’s stock to a hit with the now-famous 4 on the Wonderlic test, but watching him play shows he’s an instinctive player with great technique.

6. St. Louis Rams – WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma St.)

Blackmon compares favorably to the top wideouts from last year (A.J. Green and Julio Jones), and, if not for the QB frenzy at the top, could have found himself being drafted second overall. With Brandon Lloyd headed to New England the Rams have a major need for a go-to receiver for QB Sam Bradford to throw to. The Rams can look to the Lions as a blueprint for pairing a good young QB (Matt Stafford) and a stud wideout (Calvin Johnson) as the centerpieces for building a playoff contending team.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Quentin Coples (UNC)

Coples fits their 4-3 scheme better than Melvin Ingram, a hybrid OLB/DE type. The Jaguars need to find a pass rush and Coples can provide them that, but don’t be shocked if the Jags make a major reach for a player like Michael Floyd, as the Jags are not known for their great drafting of late. A trade is also a possibility for a team in the middle of the 1st round looking to move up in order to snag Ryan Tannehill away from the Dolphins.

8. Miami Dolphins – QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

In their continued quest to replace the great Dan Marino, the Dolphins appear poised to once again reach too far for a mediocre quarterback in Tannehill. Tannehill, a wide receiver until his sophomore year, has scouts drooling over his arm strength and athleticism (stop me if you’ve heard that before). He has many physical tools to be a starter in the NFL, but there are questions about his mental capacity to grasp an NFL offense and read complex defenses, something he’s never seen in the Big 12. Tannehill has been so impressive in shorts and a T-shirt that scouts have found ways to make excuses for his inability to win big games and his tendency to disappear in the 4th quarter. This could be yet another setback in the Dolphins efforts to contend in the tough AFC East.

9. Carolina Panthers – DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi St.)

Cox is not the sexy pick, but the Panthers have been missing a presence on the interior of their defensive line ever since Kris Jenkins left. Cox can fill the A gap and stuff the run, and while they also could use a pass rusher, having a forceful tackle will help free up their defensive ends to get to the quarterback. Other options at this point would be Reilly Reiff at left tackle or Floyd at WR, but the need on the defensive side is so great that I feel the Panthers will have to address the DT issue early, especially facing backs like Michael Turner and LaGarrette Blount four times a season.

10. Buffalo Bills – OL Reilly Reiff (Iowa)

Reiff makes perfect sense for the Bills who need to keep Fitzpatrick upright after former tackle Demetrious Bell left for the Eagles. Reiff is maybe more polished right now than Matt Kalil, but his ceiling isn’t as high, which is why Kalil will go before him. Reiff comes out of Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa program known for producing quality offensive linemen. While the Bills could use a WR to pair with Stevie Johnson, this would be too much of a stretch to take Floyd this early, especially with the need at OL.

11. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Dontari Poe (Memphis)

The Chiefs have a number of needs, but nose tackle in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 scheme is tops on that list. Poe has risen on draft boards since the end of the season, and he was hugely impressive at the combine, running a 4.98 40 while weighing in at 346 pounds. Poe has garnished high praise being compared to Ravens NT Haloti Ngata due to his freakish athleticism. While I think that is a bit much, he seems to be the best fit to clog the middle and allow Derrick Johnson to fly around a make plays. The Chiefs can go in many directions, Kuechly at MLB and DeCastro at G also make sense, but they have the chance to fill their biggest need and I think they do it.

12. Seattle Seahawks – ILB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)

The Seahawks are another team that has overachieved of late but still have a number of needs all over the field. They have been missing a leader at middle linebacker ever since Lofa Tatupu, now on the Falcons, left two years ago. Kuechly is a sure-tackler in the middle who is very instinctive and is great at reading running lanes and filling gaps. He is not the fastest guy, which could pose a bit of a problem in man-to-man coverage, but he is a student of the game who will make up for a speed deficiency through his play-recognition in film study. The Seahawks could also use a defensive end, but in their 4-3, Ingram doesn’t make sense and Kuechly fills a top need.

13. Arizona Cardinals – OLB Melvin Ingram (South Carolina)

The Cardinals need a pass rush option in their 3-4 defense and, while this isn’t their biggest need, Ingram would be the best player available at this spot and would fill one of their needs. Ingram gives them a steady pass-rusher with good size and speed off the edge. He doesn’t fit the 4-3 DE description, which is why he will slide. The Cardinals could also add Floyd to compliment Fitzgerald, take Jonathan Martin at tackle, or possibly trade up to the 7th spot if they feel strongly about Tannehill and want to take him ahead of the Dolphins.

14. Dallas Cowboys – S Mark Barron (Alabama)

The Cowboys need stability at the back end of their secondary and have struggled to replace Roy Williams, trying guys like Gerald Sensabaugh. Barron can be the enforcer at safety and has the ability to play both the run and the pass. His experience in Nick Saban’s complex coverages means he should transition quickly into an NFL secondary and have the discipline to play within the Cowboys’ coverage schemes. If Ingram is still available the Cowboys would jump at the opportunity to add him alongside Ware, while Floyd is also another option to give Romo more weapons on the outside, with Laurent Robinson gone.

15. Philadelphia Eagles – DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

The Eagles interior defense would best be described as porous last year against the run, allowing teams to move the ball without much resistance up the middle. With their “wide nine” defensive ends, the issue at DT was magnified even further. Brockers would provide them with a quality run stuffer in the middle that would allow the Eagles DE’s to focus on what they do best: getting to the QB.

16. New York Jets – OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama)

Upshaw can fit the Jets 3-4 scheme and bring some youth to the Jets’ aging linebacking corps. While some see Upshaw as a reach here, he fits the need for an edge rusher. The Jets could add Floyd in order to give Mark Sanchez some more weapons outside of just Santonio Holmes.

17. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)

Floyd could go as early as seventh to the Jaguars, but I feel there are enough teams with bigger needs than wideout that he will slip to the mid-round and would be a perfect fit for the Bengals. They had a productive offense last season with the emergence of rookie duo Andy Dalton and AJ Green, but could use another weapon to take some of the attention off Green. Floyd has great size, leaping ability and hands that make him a solid possession receiver and redzone target. He impressed with his 40 time at the combine and showed he has more speed than most had thought. Floyd and Green could become a great WR tandem for years to come, and give Dalton and the Bengals even more options in their passing attack.

18. San Diego Chargers – OG David DeCastro (Stanford)

The Chargers need to bolster the interior of their OL and have needs at center and guard. DeCastro is one of the best guard prospects in years and is incredibly strong, has great footwork and is as good run-blocking as he is pass-blocking. The Chargers have a very good core group of skill position players, led by Philip Rivers, but need to get tougher and stronger at the point of attack, and DeCastro would give them that.

19. Chicago Bears – CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina)

The Bears have an aging secondary and need all the help they can get in the NFC North, which has become one of the best passing divisions in football (thanks to Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers). Gilmore has all the athletic ability to be a very good corner and has shown at times the ability to shut down the competition. He will continue to develop, and if he can improve on his consistency and achieve his full potential, the Bears will have a top corner in the league on their hands. Gilmore ran a 4.4 40 at the combine and can also fill in for Hester in the return game as well, which helps boost his value past Kirkpatrick.

20. Tennessee Titans – CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)

Another member of the Crimson Tide comes off the board as Dre Kirkpatrick heads to Tennessee as the Titans look to fill the void left by Cortland Finnegan (now in St. Louis). Kirkpatrick has prototypical size (6’1½” 186 lbs.) and has great speed (ran a 4.43 40). The Titans have needs on the defensive line and offensive line, but without Finnegan, they are desperate to find another No. 1 corner.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – OG Cordy Glenn (UGA)

I have the Bengals taking a bit of a luxury pick with Floyd at 17, but with the 21st pick they will look to fill a big need on the interior of the offensive line. Cordy Glenn watched his stock rise as he showed off his athleticism and strength at the combine, and he was very impressive during his UGA career. Glenn is massive at 6’5” 343 lbs. and can play both guard spots and could fill in at right tackle when needed. Due to his combination of size, athleticism and versatility, Glenn has risen up draft boards into the mid-1st round and would be a perfect fit for the Bengals. He can help provide a team with run-blocking on the right side and has the athleticism to be a pulling left guard.

22. Cleveland Browns – WR Kendall Wright (Baylor)

The Browns will continue to try and put weapons around Colt McCoy with the 22nd pick after taking Richardson at 4. Kendall Wright would most likely step into the No. 1 receiver slot ahead of Massaquoi and Little. The Browns need a go-to player on the outside, something they’ve lacked for years (Braylon Edwards might count). I’m not sold on Wright as a top receiver in the NFL as he’s undersized (5’10¼” 198 lbs.) in the era of tall, strong receivers, and he ran a 4.59 at the Combine (4.45 at Baylor pro day) so his speed is a bit in question. However, he’s the 3rd best option at WR in this draft, and the Browns desperately need to upgrade that position. If they don’t take Blackmon at 4, then they will need to get Wright at 22. If Wright is gone (he could be on Bengals radar as well) the Browns could take one of the 3rd tier QBs (Kirk Cousins, Brandon Weeden, Nick Foles or Brock Osweiler) at 22 or try and trade down and get more picks in rounds 2 & 3.

23. Detroit Lions – OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)

Detroit needs to keep quarterback Matt Stafford upright and healthy, and Martin would be a perfect fit for them. Martin is a big, physical, athletic tackle. Current tackle Jeff Backus has been there for a long time, and would provide Martin a chance to learn from a veteran on his way in. Martin is a pick looking toward the future and might not be asked to start on the left side immediately, but he would add depth and stability for years to come. The Lions also need a corner, but with so many questions about character it might be tough for them to take Janoris Jenkins at this point. Running back is another need, but the 2nd tier backs would be a stretch with the 23rd pick.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – ILB Donta Hightower (Alabama)

Pittsburgh needs to get younger in their linebacking corps and Hightower would fit in perfectly: aggressive against the run with lots of versatility to move around Dick LeBeau’s 3-4. A question for Hightower was his ability to cover in man-to-man, but that would be a moot issue with the Steelers, who almost exclusively run a zone scheme. Hightower can get after the quarterback and is at his best playing downhill, which would be perfect for Pittsburgh. The Steelers will look at snagging another wideout later in the draft, but it seems as though Hightower is exactly what they need/want in the first round.

25. Denver Broncos – DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State)

The Broncos desperately need an upgrade on the interior of the defensive line, and with Poe, Cox and Brockers off the board, Worthy is the logical choice. Worthy is a very talented run stopper up the middle and should allow the Broncos’ inside backers to run around and make plays uninhibited. Worthy is not the pass rusher Brockers is, but with the great rushers on the outside the Broncos possess, that isn’t a big issue for them. The Broncos could also look to get a running back like Doug Martin or Lamar Miller at this spot considering how disappointing and unreliable Knowshon Moreno has been in his first few years.

26. Houston Texans – WR Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech)

Hill’s draft stock has rocketed since he blew out the combine, no surprise to those familiar with his exploits in high school track and field. He is as raw as any receiver we’ve seen come out in years and is drawing comparisons to fellow Yellow Jacket DeMaryius Thomas. The Texans have seen how their offense takes a serious hit when Andre Johnson misses time, missing 12 games in the past two seasons, and they could use an explosive weapon to work in conjunction with Johnson. Hill would benefit greatly from playing with Johnson, who could help teach Hill crisp route-running and help him get better with his hands. I’m not sold at all on Hill’s NFL potential, but, as always, there will be a team that thinks it can be the one to turn his physical talents into a successful product on the field. He struggled in his limited opportunities at Georgia Tech, but he has caught the ball very well in workouts, so teams may place the blame more on Tech’s poor quarterback play than Hill’s hands.

27. New England Patriots – DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus (Illinois)

Mercilus played 4-3 DE but is athletic enough to make the move to the 3-4 OLB spot, which is what he would be for the Pats. He has very good speed, running a 4.63 40 at the combine, and would be able to help the Pats pass rush that struggled mightily once Andre Carter went down with an injury. Carter will be back, but their sack-leader from 2011, Mark Anderson, heads north to Buffalo. Mercilus would be asked to come in and produce immediately and try to pressure the quarterback in order to relieve the pressure on their sub-par secondary. While the secondary could use some work, Jenkins is not a Belicheck-type guy and there isn’t a safety worth the 27th pick. Also, with another pick at 31, the Patriots can take the best available player at one of their need positions, which Mercilus would be.

28. Green Bay Packers – OLB Shea McClellin (Boise State)

The Packers need another pass-rusher to compliment Clay Matthews and take some of the attention away from him. McClellin fits that need. He is a high energy guy that has improved his stock with a solid performance at the Senior Bowl and Combine, running a 4.62 40 and impressing in position drills. The Packers struggled against the pass, and a lot of their problems stemmed from a lack of pass rush. McClellin would be able to come in and give them a boost in what was a very stagnant pass rush last year.

29. Baltimore Ravens – C Peter Konz (Wisconsin)

Baltimore’s getting long in the tooth at many positions, mainly needing a safety, interior offensive linemen and linebacker. Sitting at 29 with all of the hybrid pass rushers off the board and a lack of a really strong safety class this year I see them taking Konz as a guy that can play immediately if needed, but would be a great insurance policy behind veteran Matt Birk. Konz comes from a great program for offensive lineman at Wisconsin so he will be a very smart, well-coached player. He played each of his three years in school, so he has experience as a signal caller on the line, as well. Konz has some versatility, so he could play at the guard spot, mainly right guard, when needed, giving the Ravens depth on the line.

30. San Francisco 49ers – CB Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama)

Jenkins has all the talent in the world (eight picks in his short Florida career), but the questions about his character will push him to the late-first or even into the second round. The 49ers would love to pick up a wide receiver at this spot, and Stephen Hill is definitely on their radar. If Hill is gone, though, there isn’t another option at wideout worth a 1st round selection. Jenkins would come into a very tight, cohesive locker room that wouldn’t allow him to be an issue, and he would be working with a group of veteran defensive backs. Jenkins can help in the return game and could come in and immediately play, if nothing else in nickel packages for the 49ers, who need to look at getting younger on defense. Trading down is a definite possibility if Hill is off the board and the Niners could look to fill needs in the second and third rounds.

31. New England Patriots – S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame)

Smith would be another fit for a Patriots’ need, who desperately need to bolster the back end of their secondary that struggled mightily against the pass. Smith isn’t as heralded as a Mark Barron, but was a very solid player in South Bend and could give them a physical presence in the secondary. James Ihedigbo struggled a lot at safety and they were forced to start him most all year due to a lack of depth or talent at the safety position. Smith would be an immediate upgrade for them and would give the Patriots a second player from this first-round that would come in and start from day one.

32. New York Giants – TE Coby Fleener (Stanford)

Fleener is the best tight end available in this draft and the Giants could use an upgrade at that position to help out Eli Manning. Fleener comes from a pro-style offense and will not have a problem sticking his hand in the turf and be a three-down tight end. Fleener can not only be a great receiving tight end, but he is the most polished as a blocker of the top tier guys. With the emergence of tight ends as major weapons in the NFL, the Giants will want to upgrade their situation and try to further their offensive production.

Falcons Draft Options

55. OT Jeff Allen (Illinois); TE Orson Charles (UGA); CB Brandon Boykin (UGA); DE Vinny Curry (Marshall)

The Falcons’ first selection will come at 55 in the second round, and there are a few directions they could go in. Jeff Allen appears to be the best tackle that will be available in that area of the draft, and the Falcons desperately need an upgrade at either tackle spot from Sam Baker, Will Svitek or Tyson Clabo. With Tony Gonzalez on one-year contracts from now until he decides to retire, the Falcons will need to find a replacement for him soon, and Orson Charles could come in and learn how to be a pro from the best in history. Many have said Dwayne Allen would be a good fit, but he probably will go earlier. The secondary remains an issue and Boykin has a lot of talent, but his stock has taken a hit due to injury and his smaller size. He would come in and fill two needs, both at corner and also in the return game now that the Falcons are without Eric Weems. Vinny Curry from Marshall is a very good pass rusher and is a fit at the 4-3 DE spot. He knows how to get to the QB, with 11 sacks last year, and has the size to be an every down end. John Abraham is not getting any younger, and questions remain about Biermann’s ability to play all three downs.

84. S George Iloka (Boise State); C Ben Jones (UGA); DE Olivier Vernon (Miami); TE Michael Egnew (Mizzou)

The 84th pick will be totally dependent on pick 55, but here are four more options for the Falcons in the 3rd round. George Iloka is a big, physical safety that possesses the necessary speed (4.59 40) to play in the Falcons Cover 2. He has the ability to cover in man, but is at his best patrolling the middle of the field and coming up in run support. Issues with tackling consistency have pushed down his stock. Ben Jones would be a popular home-town pick, and he also fits a major need on the interior of the OL. Todd McClure is back, but his career is nearing its finish, and Jones, naturally a center, can fill in for him or has experience at both guard spots. He is smaller than average which pushes his stock down, but the concern about height might be a bit overblown considering how well other small centers have done, like Jeff Saturday. Olivier Vernon is an option as a 4-3 pass rusher if the Falcons decide not to go with a DE in the 2nd round. Vernon missed six games due to the Nevin Shapiro scandal last year, but his size, strength and quickness should make him a solid pro, and he would give the Falcons much needed depth at defensive end. Michael Egnew is a raw, talented pass catcher that has to learn how to put a hand in the ground and be an in-line blocker. He is very fast (4.53 40) and athletic, thriving in the Mizzou spread, but there are questions about his ability to transition into the pro-style offense. Atlanta might be the perfect fit for him because he could sit behind Gonzalez and learn how to play the position in the pros.

HOME-GROWN

A number of players from the state of Georgia are eligible for this year’s draft, and we’ve got a pair going in the first round in Stephen Hill (GT) and Cordy Glenn (UGA). Here are some more in-state prospects looking to make an impact in the NFL and our thoughts on where they could go.

CB Brandon Boykin (UGA)

Boykin’s size and leg injury have pushed his draft stock down, but the former Bulldog has all of the skills to play corner in the NFL. His speed and agility not only make him a solid cover corner but also a dangerous player in the return game. Boykin ought to come off the board on day two of the draft in the late-second or early-third round. The Falcons, sitting at 55, could be a landing spot, but the Lions, Texans, Packers, Panthers and Bears all have needs at cornerback that are unlikely to be met in the first round.

C Ben Jones (UGA)

Jones is another Bulldog that has to answer questions about his size, but Jones is the second-best center in this year’s draft behind Wisconsin’s Peter Konz. The Titans, Broncos, Chargers, Falcons, Cowboys, and Giants all could use depth on the interior of their offensive lines and have a need either immediately or in the near future at center. Jones can come in and play at either guard spot or center, and that kind of versatility will give him a very good opportunity to make an NFL roster and see some solid playing time early in his career. We expect to see him come off the board in the mid-to-late third round to one of these teams.

TE Orson Charles (UGA)

Charles is a very talented pass catcher at the tight end spot but is raw in terms of playing with a hand in the dirt and in-line blocking. Charles underwhelmed scouts with his slow 40 times (4.9 & 4.75) at the UGA pro day, which really hurt his stock since he’s a receiving tight end that ran like a blocker. Charles also raised red flags with his DUI arrest earlier in the year so don’t expect to see him come off the board until late in the second-round at the earliest. While his draft stock has taken a hit, he shouldn’t slide too far out of the second round considering the impact tight ends have had over the past few years. The Eagles, Bucs, Falcons, Giants, Raiders and Colts each could use a tight end that can expand their passing attack, so look for Charles to go to one of these squads in the second or third round.