Atlanta’s win over Carolina was not exactly a thing of beauty, nor will it ever be classified as an “impressive” win coming against a 1-11 opponent. Nonetheless, the Falcons took care of business, and by doing so they crept ever closer to clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Because both Philadelphia and the New York Giants won on Sunday and Monday night, respectively, the Falcons have not even locked down a playoff spot. Despite that, the No. 1 seed is within sight.
Atlanta has three games remaining; at Seattle, home vs. New Orleans, and home vs. Carolina. A Monday night showdown with the 10-3 Saints looms especially large, and while it will almost certainly appear crucial at the time, the Falcons can make it irrelevant to the division and conference discussion.
If Atlanta wins two of its last three games, in any combination, it clinches the No. 1 seed. Even if the Falcons lose for the first time all season in the Georgia Dome to New Orleans, they would make up for it by defeating Seattle and Carolina–even if the Saints win the rest of their games. If both teams finish 13-3, Atlanta wins the division.
Why? It would come down to the third tiebreaker. Head-to-head would be tied at one win apiece, and NFC South records would be all square at 5-1. Next comes records against common opponents. The three common opponents against whom Atlanta and New Orleans would have fared differently are Arizona, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. The Falcons went 2-1 in those games (lost to Pittsburgh), while the Saints went 1-2 (lost to Arizona and Cleveland).
Thanks to Chicago’s blowout loss to New England on Sunday, no other team is within a game of the Falcons. Aside from New Orleans, every other NFC contender (most notably the 9-4 Eagles, who hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta), would need the conference leader to stumble at least twice down the stretch.
“We know what we have to do and we like where we’re at,” head coach Mike Smith said during his Monday press conference. “We’ve said that many times here over the last couple weeks. We like where we’re at.
“We can’t concern ourselves with what other teams are doing. Nobody is trying to help the Atlanta Falcons in this league except the Atlanta Falcons. You can’t concern yourselves about what’s going on. You’ve gotta make sure that you take care of what you can control.”
Right now, the Falcons are in complete control of the entire NFC.
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