BREAKING DOWN THE MADNESS: Favorites’ success becoming a trend

March Madness – the term seeks to describe college basketball in the third month of the year. The “madness” part of the label is meant to illustrate the chaos that prevails at the end of the season, as favored teams lose to heavy underdogs and miraculous plays propel one team into ecstasy and the other into depression. However, so far in this year’s NCAA Tourney, we’ve seen the favorites come out on top more often than not.

 

NEAR CINDERELLAS

Siena made a nice run at Louisville before bowing out late in the game, as did Oklahoma State against Pitt and Texas against Duke. LSU and UNC were locked in a classic back-and-forth struggle into the final few minutes of the game when the Tigers’ outside shooting began to fail them and the Tar Heels’ bevy of offensive weapons kept scoring.

Western Kentucky nearly made its second Sweet Sixteen in a row, but fell after Gonzaga guard Demetri Goodson did his best Tyus Edney impression and beat the Hilltoppers with a last-second, full-court dash to the hoop.

Last season, the four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four for the first time in tournament history. Are we headed for that result again?

If so, the question must be asked — are the rich getting richer in college basketball, or is the recent predictability of the tournament just a passing trend?

Because many of the games are still competitive, there is no immediate cause for concern. After all, George Mason made the Final Four a mere four years ago, and Davidson nearly made it last season. But for a tournament known for miracles and Cinderellas, the NCAA Tourney is in bad need of another underdog story.

Or at least a No. 2 seed or higher in the Final Four.

 

SEC BOWS OUT EARLY

One of the nation’s power conferences, the SEC, has no representatives in the Sweet 16 after having just one in 2008. Was it a result of fielding mediocre teams this season or more likely due to tough first- and second-round matchups?

Perhaps the toughest route to the Final Four in terms of seedings is drawing the No. 8 or No. 9 seed. From there, a team has a tough first-round matchup followed by one of the top four teams in the Tourney in the second. A team in that position has to pull a major upset just to make the Sweet 16.

Two of the three SEC teams that made the tourney (Tennessee and LSU) had exactly that predicament.

For a team that spent much of the season in the top 25 and easily ran away with the regular-season conference championship, LSU had a major right to complain about drawing the No. 8 seed in the South. Not only did the Tigers draw a challenging first-round opponent in Butler, but they would face tournament favorite North Carolina in the second round; in Greensboro, no less.

LSU did the SEC proud and defeated Butler before bowing to the ultra-talented Tar Heels. But would any team short of a No. 1 seed have played UNC any better?

The Tigers never had a real chance in this tournament after a highly successful regular season.

Mississippi State also has a right to question its seeding. A major conference team that won 23 games and its conference tournament, the Bulldogs saw themselves travelling to Portland, Ore., with the No. 13 seed to face Pac-10 regular-season champ Washington, whose campus is just a short drive from the Rose Garden.

Sure, the Bulldogs were not going to make the tournament had they not won the SEC title, but was a No. 13 seed really fair? Was it fair for the ‘Dogs to have to travel across the country for their first-round game? It is questionable, to be sure.

USC, a Pac-10 program that was in a similar must-win situation before its conference tournament, garnered a No. 10 seed after winning 21 games during the season. The Trojans did have to travel to Minneapolis but they faced a middling ACC team in Boston College that had to travel a considerable distance as well.

 

CONFERENCE TOURNEY STANDOUTS SURVIVE FIRST WEEKEND

One axiom of the NCAA Tourney is that teams that go far in their conference tourneys will not fare well in the Big Dance. Several teams this season have proved that line of thinking to be wrong.

The story of the conference tournaments was the epic six-overtime showdown between UConn and Syracuse in the Big East Tournament. The teams essentially played two games in one on a grueling Thursday night. Syracuse, winner of the marathon, then won the next night and played in the tournament final.

Both squads looked as sharp as ever in the first and second rounds and advanced to the Sweet 16.

Major conference champions Duke, Louisville, Purdue and Missouri are also alive and kicking in the Sweet 16.

At least two of them, Louisville and Duke, would not surprise anyone if they were to advance beyond the second weekend.

Black can be reached at sblack@scoreatl.com.

 

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