Last year was a humbling experience. I am sure there were a few people scattered amongst the millions of us who filled out brackets last season who picked UConn to win the national title or Butler to make another final game. But most of us did not and our office pools were a mess by the final weekend.
No. 11 seed VCU and eighth-seeded Butler made the Final Four, while traditional powers UK and UConn rebounded from unimpressive regular season to join them in Houston. It was one of the most unpredictable Final Fours in the history of the tournament.
But let’s remember that 2011 was not a normal tournament year. In this space last year, I urged you all to rely on favorites to make the semifinals but not to pick all No. 1 seeds. I also reminded you that, while you want to pick a few underdogs (nine seeds or lower) to make noise, you generally want to end their runs by the Elite Eight.
While both of those maxims were proved right and wrong to certain degrees last year, they hold true again this year. You will want to ride with a favorite to cut down the nets, but also pick a No. 1 seed or two to get eliminated early (by the Sweet Sixteen). You also want to pick a few lower seed to advance a round or two, but not ride them into the finals.
Generally in sports, if there is a trend one year, it is reversed the following year. If last year’s trend was many of the big boys going down early and the mid-majors riding high, this year will probably be the opposite.
While last year VCU and Butler made the final weekend, it is doubtful two mid-majors or lower seeded teams will make the Final Four again this year. In fact, it is probably a good bet that four-seeds and above will make up the Final Four this season as is customary.
However, UConn’s run to the championship did prove one thing – always bet on the hot hand going into the Big Dance. UConn finished ninth in the Big East during the regular season and was firmly on the bubble going into the conference tournaments. But the Huskies followed sensational point guard Kemba Walker to the tournament title and then rode him to a national championship.
The Huskies’ title also kept alive another important trend – teams from the six major conferences (ACC, Big XII, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC) tend to hoard the national titles. While Butler and Memphis have made the finals in recent season, neither could do enough to beat their major conference opponents in the final. So that narrows your search for a national championship just a bit!
So there you have it – a vague blueprint of how to pick your bracket: don’t rely too heavily on No. 1 seeds to make the final weekend, expect the recent mid-major bonanzas to end, go with the hot teams coming into the tournament, and pick a national champion from a major conference.
Good luck, god speed, and once again, pray you’re not in my pool!
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